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  1. Economic disruptions in long-term energy scenarios
    implications for designing energy policy
    Autor*in: Govorukha, Kristina; Mayer, Philip; Rübbelke, Dirk T. G.; Vögele, Stefan
    Erschienen: June 2019
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italia

    The main drivers of transformation processes of electricity markets stem from climate policies and changing economic environments. In order to analyse the respective developments, modelling approaches regularly rely on multiple structural and... mehr

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    DS 125
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    The main drivers of transformation processes of electricity markets stem from climate policies and changing economic environments. In order to analyse the respective developments, modelling approaches regularly rely on multiple structural and parametric simplifications. For example, discontinuities in economic development (recessions and booms) are frequently disregarded. Distorting effects that are caused by such simplifications tend to scale up with an extension of the time horizon of the analysis and can significantly affect the accuracy of long-term projections. In this study, we include information on economic discontinuities and elaborate on their influences on short-and long-term modelling outcomes. Based on historical data, we identify the impact of a high-amplitude change in economic parameters and examine its cumulative effect on the German electricity market by applying a techno-economic electricity market model for the period from 2005 to 2014. Similar changes may consistently occur in the future and we expect that a more comprehensive understanding of their effects on long-term scenarios will increase the validity of long-term models. Results indicate that policy decision making based on modelling frameworks can benefit from a comprehensive understanding of the underlying simplifications of most scenario studies.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/211176
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2019, 017
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. How does climate change affect the transition of power systems
    the case of Germany
    Autor*in: Golub, Alexander; Govorukha, Kristina; Mayer, Philip; Rübbelke, Dirk T. G.
    Erschienen: October 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    The effects of extreme weather events, such as heat waves and droughts, are taken into account in both global and European policies. Accordingly, the protection of critical infrastructures and in particular, the resilience of the energy sector was... mehr

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    DS 63
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    The effects of extreme weather events, such as heat waves and droughts, are taken into account in both global and European policies. Accordingly, the protection of critical infrastructures and in particular, the resilience of the energy sector was the subject of intense research. There are regional differences in the degree to which extreme events affect the energy sector. In Northern Europe, their intensity has increased dramatically within a decade. In our analysis, we identify emerging risks of extreme weather events, in particular, droughts and high temperatures, for the German power sector. Our analysis is based on extensive datasets comprising temperature and drought data for the last 40 years. We find evidence of a higher frequency of power plants outages as a consequence of droughts and high temperatures. We investigate increases in the wholesale electricity price and price volatility and develop a capacity-adjusted drought index. The results are used to assess the monetary loss of power plant outages due to heat waves and droughts. We stress that increasing frequencies of such extreme weather events will aggravate the observed problem, especially with respect to the transition of the power sector.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/226315
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8613 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Costs and benefits of political and physical collaboration in the European Power Market
    Autor*in: Mier, Mathias; Siala, Kais; Govorukha, Kristina; Mayer, Philip
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    We use the cross-impact balance analysis to develop narratives that differ in the level of political collaboration (in terms of the stringency of the EU climate policy) and physical collaboration (possible expansion of transmission capacity between... mehr

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    We use the cross-impact balance analysis to develop narratives that differ in the level of political collaboration (in terms of the stringency of the EU climate policy) and physical collaboration (possible expansion of transmission capacity between countries) in the European power market. Applying a CGE model and two power market models, we quantify the impact of the two dimensions on emission, abatement cost, and electricity prices until 2050. The most collaborative narrative leads to CO2 emissions of 90 to 139 Mt, abatement cost of 245 to 271 EUR/ton CO2, and prices of 56 to 67 EUR/MWh in 2050. The least collaborative one has emissions of 848 to 1013 Mt, cost of 378 to 559 EUR/ton, and prices of 47 to 57 EUR/MWh. In all narratives, countries at the periphery of the European market tend to experience lower prices and abate more, whereas prices are higher and abatement lower in central and Southeast Europe.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/226807
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 343 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Fragmented landscape of European policies in the energy sector
    first-mover advantages
    Autor*in: Govorukha, Kristina; Mayer, Philip; Rübbelke, Dirk T. G.
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    In order to achieve the commonly agreed emission reduction target, the European Commission developed binding national targets for each member state until 2030 and called upon the member states to submit National Energy and Climate Plans to ensure... mehr

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    In order to achieve the commonly agreed emission reduction target, the European Commission developed binding national targets for each member state until 2030 and called upon the member states to submit National Energy and Climate Plans to ensure increased transparency for the respective national targets and strategies. An analysis of these plans shows that some of the emission reductions set at the national level prescribe a more ambitious decarbonisation than the EU-wide limits. However, since a transformation to a climate-friendly system requires considerable investment, the question arises as to why some states apparently want to be in the vanguard. We find that countries may have an incentive to outperform other states in the development of a low-carbon electricity system in order to pass on part of the transformation costs to neighbouring countries.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/235463
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9093 (2021)
    Schlagworte: electricity; utilities; thermal generation; unilateral action; climate policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. How does climate change affect the transition of power systems: the case of Germany
    Autor*in: Golub, Alexander; Govorukha, Kristina; Mayer, Philip; Rübbelke, Dirk T. G.
    Erschienen: October 2020
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italia

    The effects of extreme weather events, such as heat waves and droughts are taken into account in both global and European policies. Accordingly, the protection of critical infrastructures and in particular, the resilience of the energy sector was the... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 125
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The effects of extreme weather events, such as heat waves and droughts are taken into account in both global and European policies. Accordingly, the protection of critical infrastructures and in particular, the resilience of the energy sector was the subject of intense research. There are regional differences in the degree of exposure to extreme events. In Northern Europe, their intensity has increased dramatically within a decade. In our analysis we identify emerging risks of extreme weather events, in particular, droughts and high temperatures, for the German power sector. Furthermore, we consider how European policy addressed these severe risks. Our analysis is based on extensive datasets covering temperature and drought data for the last 40 years. We find evidence of a higher frequency of power plants outages as a consequence of droughts and high temperatures. We investigate increases in the wholesale electricity price and price volatility and develop a capacity-adjusted drought index. The results are used to assess the monetary loss of power plant outages due to heatwaves and droughts. We stress that increasing frequencies of such extreme weather events will aggravate the observed problem, especially with respect to the transition of the power sector.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/228788
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2020, 012
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Collaboration, decarbonization, and distributional effects
    Autor*in: Mier, Mathias; Siala, Kais; Govorukha, Kristina; Mayer, Philip
    Erschienen: April 2022
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    We conduct a hybrid scenario exercise to analyze decarbonization pathways of the European power market and related distributional effects across countries as well as between consumers and producers. Our CIB analysis reveals qualitative scenarios that... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 402
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We conduct a hybrid scenario exercise to analyze decarbonization pathways of the European power market and related distributional effects across countries as well as between consumers and producers. Our CIB analysis reveals qualitative scenarios that differ in the level of political (stringency of climate policy) and physical collaboration (transmission grid expansion). We use a CGE model to quantify those scenarios for further usage in a power market model. Consumers generally experience considerably higher electricity prices, whereas producers observe higher rents. Electricity prices are lowest in the least collaborative future. Producer rents in turn are highest in the most collaborative one. Patterns hugely differ by country, making 13 countries to profiteers of the least collaborative future and 12 countries to profiteers of the most collaborative one. Only 3 countries profit from medium collaboration. Countries that profit from the most collaborative future experience substantially higher producer rents. Countries that profit from the least collaborative one in turn experience lowest electricity prices.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/251985
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 368 (2022)
    Schlagworte: Hybrid scenario analysis; CIB method; CGE modeling; energy system modeling; power market modeling; collaboration; decarbonization; energy transition; distributional effects
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen