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  1. What drives long-term interest rates?
    evidence from the entire Swiss franc history 1852-2020
    Autor*in: Hauzenberger, Niko; Kaufmann, Daniel; Stuart, Rebecca; Tille, Cédric
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Université de Neuchâtel, Institute de Recherches Économiques, [Neuchâtel]

    We study domestic and international drivers of long-term interest rates using newly compiled financial market data for Switzerland starting in 1852. We use a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model to estimate long-term trends in nominal... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 615
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    We study domestic and international drivers of long-term interest rates using newly compiled financial market data for Switzerland starting in 1852. We use a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model to estimate long-term trends in nominal interest rates, exchange rate growth, and inflation. We then decompose the Swiss long-term interest rate trend into various drivers using an interest rate accounting framework. The decline in long-term interest rates since 1970 is mainly driven by a decline in the level of inflation. Comparing Switzerland with the rest of the world, we show that while Swiss real interest rates were higher during the 19th century, the pattern reversed after World War 2 with Swiss nominal and real rates becoming lower than foreign ones. However, this Swiss "low interest rate island" has disappeared in recent years. We document a connection between inflation risk and the Swiss term spread, as well between relative inflation risk and the difference between Swiss and foreign real interest rates.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/265181
    Schriftenreihe: IRENE working paper ; 22, 03
    Schlagworte: Natural rate of interest; exchange rate; inflation risk; term spread; uncovered interest parity; historical data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Government spending in uncertain and slack times
    historical evidence for larger fiscal multipliers
    Autor*in: Goemans, Pascal
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Verein für Socialpolitik, [Köln]

    We investigate whether US government spending multipliers are higher during periods of heightened uncertainty or economic slack as opposed to normal times. Using quarterly historical data and local projections, we estimate a cumulative one-year... mehr

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    We investigate whether US government spending multipliers are higher during periods of heightened uncertainty or economic slack as opposed to normal times. Using quarterly historical data and local projections, we estimate a cumulative one-year multiplier of 2 during uncertain periods. In contrast, the multiplier is about 1 in times of high unemployment and about 0:5 - 0:7 during normal times. While we find positive employment effects in economic slack as in uncertain times, two transmission channels can explain the higher multipliers in the latter: greater price exibility leading to short run in ation (lowering the real interest rate) and diminishing risk premiums

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/224642
    Schriftenreihe: Jahrestagung 2020 / Verein für Socialpolitik ; 129
    Schlagworte: Fiscal policy; government spending; scal multiplier; uncertainty,economic slack; local projections; historical data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The birth order effect
    a modern phenomenon?
    Autor*in: Nuevo-Chiquero, Ana; Vidal-Fernandez, Marian; Lehmann, Jee-Yeon
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We provide a historical perspective on the birth order effect by examining differences in adult occupational rank among brothers in 19th and early 20th century Netherlands. Using a rich historical dataset compiling administrative birth and marriage... mehr

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    We provide a historical perspective on the birth order effect by examining differences in adult occupational rank among brothers in 19th and early 20th century Netherlands. Using a rich historical dataset compiling administrative birth and marriage registry records linking family members, we further analyze the role of family composition and socio-economic status in modulating the birth order effect. While consistent with findings in modern developed countries, we find that later-born males hold lower-ranked occupations than their older male siblings, we also find that consistent with modern evidence from emerging economies like India and China, this negative birth order effect is primarily driven by differences between the first- and the last-born and their siblings, and by the number of brothers in the family. Birth order differences - particularly the first-born advantage - are larger among socio-economically advantaged families and in more urbanised areas, while the opposite is true for the last-born effect. Surprisingly, the first-born advantage or son-preference is not driven by inheritance rules or transmission of occupations to children born earlier in the family. Taken together, our findings suggest that birth order effects and quantity-quality tradeoffs in families, are not merely modern phenomena but have been a source of context-dependent intrahousehold inequality throughout the centuries.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/282577
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16450
    Schlagworte: birth order; first-born; the Netherlands; historical data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. How does government size affect economic growth?
    new results from a historical dataset
    Autor*in: Colombier, Carsten
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  Finanzwissenschaftliches Forschungsinstitut an der Universität zu Köln, Köln

    This paper contributes to the still unresolved issue of the growth impact of government size by analysing a historical panel data set of 17 developed countries that ranges from 1880 to 2016. The unique feature of the long-time dimension allows for... mehr

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    This paper contributes to the still unresolved issue of the growth impact of government size by analysing a historical panel data set of 17 developed countries that ranges from 1880 to 2016. The unique feature of the long-time dimension allows for conducting a kind of natural experiment. Government size is closely related to economic-policy paradigms. The time span covers different economic policy paradigms, in particular, 'laissez-faire' before World War II and Keynesian economic policy after World War II. Before WW II government size is small, after WW II it is (has grown) big. Furthermore, this paper contributes to filling a gap in the literature by testing the non-linear hypothesis (Armey curve). We take particular attention to a key shortcoming of panel-data analysis - parameter or individual heterogeneity. Overall, this analysis suggests a systematic positive, albeit quite small, linear relationship of government size with economic growth. As a consequence, rather than concentrating their attention to the sheer size of government, policy makers are advised caring for an efficiently run and highquality government sector as a prerequisite for a steady growth path.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/297976
    Schriftenreihe: FiFo discussion paper ; no. 24, 1
    Schlagworte: government size; economic growth; Armey curve; historical data; robustness analysis
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen