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  1. Macroeconomic responses to uncertainty shocks
    the perils of recursive orderings
    Erschienen: November 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autogressive (VAR) models. When the implied impulse responses look similar, the estimates are considered trustworthy.... mehr

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    A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autogressive (VAR) models. When the implied impulse responses look similar, the estimates are considered trustworthy. When they do not, the estimates are used to bound the true response without directly addressing the identification challenge. A leading example of this practice is the literature on the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity. We prove by counterexample that this practice is invalid in general, whether the data generating process is a structural VAR model or a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.

     

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    hdl: 10419/271765
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10121 (2022)
    Schlagworte: Cholesky decomposition; orthogonalization; simultaneity; endogeneity; uncertainty; business cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Cash money as a saving mode
    Autor*in: Laurila, Hannu
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Faculty of Management and Business, Tampere University, Finland, [Tampere]

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    ISBN: 9789520325282
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    Schriftenreihe: Tampere economic working papers ; 135 (August 2022)
    Schlagworte: compensating variation; deposit saving; expected yield; liquid money; uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Yielding profits?
    low adoption of an improved mung bean seed variety in Southern Bangladesh
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA

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    Schriftenreihe: IFPRI discussion paper ; 01975 (November 2020)
    Schlagworte: Market systems; technology adoption; uncertainty; Bangladesh
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Evaluating the robustness of project performance under deep uncertainty of climate change
    a case study of irrigation development in Kenya : research on economic evaluation of adaptation measures to climate change under uncertainty
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development, Tokyo, Japan

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    Schriftenreihe: JICA Ogata Research Institute working paper ; no. 223 (August 2021)
    Schlagworte: climate change adaptation; climate finance; uncertainty; Robust Decision Making (RDM); economic assessment; irrigation; agriculture; Africa
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Trade in times of uncertainty
    Erschienen: February 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    This paper analyses the direct and indirect trade volume and trade cost effects of uncertainty on international trade and economic welfare using a structural gravity framework for a panel of 97 developed and developing countries from 2000 to 2018.... mehr

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    This paper analyses the direct and indirect trade volume and trade cost effects of uncertainty on international trade and economic welfare using a structural gravity framework for a panel of 97 developed and developing countries from 2000 to 2018. Our results suggest that an increase in unilateral uncertainty affects average trade costs in a heterogeneous manner, depending on whether the uncertainty originates from the importing or exporting country. Moreover, using a cross-sectional gravity approach, we show that an uncertainty shock directly reduces cross-border trade flows. The paper illustrates the suitability of the proposed modeling approach by means of two counterfactual scenario analyses in which we calculate the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of uncertainty induced by the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum in 2016 and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

     

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    hdl: 10419/271928
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10284 (2023)
    Schlagworte: international trade; trade costs; gravity; uncertainty; counterfactual scenario; analysis; Brexit; Covid-19
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Agreed and disagreed uncertainty
    Erschienen: May 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    When agents' information is imperfect and dispersed, existing measures of macroeconomic uncertainty based on the forecast error variance have two distinct drivers: the variance of the economic shock and the variance of the information dispersion. The... mehr

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    When agents' information is imperfect and dispersed, existing measures of macroeconomic uncertainty based on the forecast error variance have two distinct drivers: the variance of the economic shock and the variance of the information dispersion. The former driver increases uncertainty and reduces agents' disagreement (agreed uncertainty). The latter increases both uncertainty and disagreement (disagreed uncertainty). We use these implications to identify empirically the effects of agreed and disagreed uncertainty shocks, based on a novel measure of consumer disagreement derived from survey expectations. Disagreed uncertainty has no discernible economic effects and is benign for economic activity, but agreed uncertainty exerts significant depressing effects on a broad spectrum of macroeconomic indicators.

     

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    hdl: 10419/279212
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10463 (2023)
    Schlagworte: uncertainty; information frictions; disagreement; Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR); sign restrictions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Does U.S. monetary policy respond to macroeconomic uncertainty?
    Erschienen: May 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    We find that macroeconomic uncertainty plays a significant role in U.S. monetary policy. First, we construct a measure of uncertainty as felt by policymakers at the time of making their rate-setting decisions. This measure is derived from a... mehr

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    We find that macroeconomic uncertainty plays a significant role in U.S. monetary policy. First, we construct a measure of uncertainty as felt by policymakers at the time of making their rate-setting decisions. This measure is derived from a real-time, Bayesian estimation of a small monetary VAR with time-varying parameters. We use it to calculate the probability of being in a high-uncertainty regime. Second, we estimate a monetary policy reaction function that, apart from macroeconomic uncertainty, includes Greenbook forecasts, revisions of those forecasts, and a measure of stock market volatility. Using data for the period 1969 - 2008, we find that policymakers set an interest rate that is significantly lower in a high-uncertainty regime, compared to a low-uncertainty regime.

     

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    hdl: 10419/279156
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10407 (2023)
    Schlagworte: monetary policy; uncertainty; real-time data; Bayesian VAR; time-varying coefficients
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Levels of uncertainty and charitable giving
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  EconomiX - UMR 7235, Université Paris Nanterre, Nanterre

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / EconomiX ; 2023, 8
    Schlagworte: Charitable giving; uncertainty; pro-social behavior; ambiguity attitudes
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Crises, uncertainty, and policy choice
    theory and evidence from Lebanon
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Economic Research Forum (ERF), Dokki, Giza, Egypt

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    German Institute for Global and Area Studies, Bibliothek
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    Schriftenreihe: ERF working papers series ; no. 1630 (March 2023)
    Schlagworte: Krise; Verhalten; Politischer Konflikt; Innenpolitik; Wirkung; Auswirkung; Politische Entscheidung; Gesetzgebung; Regierungskrise; Machtwechsel; Regierungswechsel; Politische Theorie; Crises; change; uncertainty; political actors
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (26 Seiten)
  10. Demand volatility and firm export margins
    evidence from Egypt
    Autor*in: Kamal, Yasmine
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Economic Research Forum (ERF), Dokki, Giza, Egypt

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    Schriftenreihe: [ERF working papers series] ; no. 1629 (March 2023)
    Schlagworte: Export; Dienstleistungsnachfrage; Gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrage; Faktornachfrage; Instabilität; Wirkung; Auswirkung; Wirtschaftliches Verhalten; Privatunternehmen; Demand volatility; uncertainty; export margins; firm-level; Egypt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (25 Seiten)
  11. Pass-through of cost-push shocks
    Erschienen: June 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    This paper examines the pass-through of cost-push shocks to customers at a granular level. Using unique firm-level survey data, we document five facts about pass-through across firms, sectors, and over time. We highlight a new channel relevant for... mehr

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    This paper examines the pass-through of cost-push shocks to customers at a granular level. Using unique firm-level survey data, we document five facts about pass-through across firms, sectors, and over time. We highlight a new channel relevant for pass-through: beliefs about the expected duration of the shock and its interaction with price rigidities. We then employ a hypothetical vignette to study the causal effect of nominal and real rigidities as well as the nature of the shock - size, duration, and economic environment - on pass-through. We observe gradual pass-through stretching over 24 months, especially for idiosyncratic shocks, undershooting the pass-through of aggregate shocks by 40%, in line with the presence of real rigidities. The survey design further allows us to infer the implied slope of the Phillips curve, which flattens after accounting for strategic complementarities.

     

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    hdl: 10419/279270
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10520 (2023)
    Schlagworte: pass-through; cost shocks; firms; heterogeneous expectations; uncertainty; nominal rigidities; real rigidities
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Agreed and disagreed uncertainty
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  [Adam Smith Business School], [Glasgow]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / University of Glasgow, Adam Smith Business School ; paper no. 2023, 04 (February 2023)
    Schlagworte: uncertainty; information frictions; disagreement; Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR); sign restrictions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Bond market spillover networks during the global pandemic
    what we learned from ASEAN-4 markets
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, Japan

    During decades of market development, the individual financial markets of the member economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have been progressively incorporated into regional and international markets. The aim of this study... mehr

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    During decades of market development, the individual financial markets of the member economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have been progressively incorporated into regional and international markets. The aim of this study is to explore and measure the strength and direction of the bond market connectedness between Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand-collectively known as ASEAN-4-and major global and regional bond markets and to identify various factors affecting spillover effects. This study derives a risk spillover measure based on the attributes of static and dynamic spillover models and empirically examines its role in receiving or transmitting shocks based on different information spillover or contagion channels. In particular, the objective of this study is to evaluate the connectedness dynamics empirically using government bond yields in ASEAN-4 markets, major regional markets (the People's Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea), and major global markets (the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States). We aim to examine risk spillovers in ASEAN-4 bond markets and identify the potential economic and financial fundamentals driving uncertainty spillovers. We find complex intra-group return and volatility connectedness among ASEAN-4 markets and moderate inter-group return and volatility connectedness between ASEAN-4 and regional and global markets at different time horizons.

     

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    hdl: 10419/296755
    Schriftenreihe: ADBI working paper series ; no. 1360 (February 2023)
    Schlagworte: ASEAN-4 bond markets; COVID-19; spillover; uncertainty; volatility
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Vladimir vs. the virus - a tale of two shocks
    an update of our Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) to April 2022 - a research note
    Erschienen: May 2022
    Verlag:  Dortmund Center for Data-Based Media Analysis, [Dortmund]

    Evangelische Hochschule Freiburg, Hochschulbibliothek
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    hdl: 2003/40930
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Version 1.0
    Schriftenreihe: DoCMA working paper ; # 11 (May 2022)
    Schlagworte: uncertainty; narratives; latent Dirichlet allocation; business cycles; text mining; computational methods; Covid-19; Ukraine war; Russia; Putin
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 15 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Permanent forest investment in a climate of uncertainty
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, Wellington, New Zealand

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    Schriftenreihe: Motu working paper ; 21, 04
    Schlagworte: Permanent forest; indigenous forest; emissions trading scheme; climate change; uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten)
  16. Unravelling deep integration: UK trade in the wake of Brexit
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Performance ; no. 1847 (April 2022)
    Schlagworte: Brexit; EU; exports; trade policy; globalisation; imports; uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. The economic and financial effects on Latin America and the Caribbean of the conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine
    Erschienen: 28 March 2022
    Verlag:  United Nations, ECLAC, Santiago de Chile

    The conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine has come at a time of great uncertainty in the world, relating to several factors: uneven rates of vaccination against coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and new variants of the virus; inflationary... mehr

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    The conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine has come at a time of great uncertainty in the world, relating to several factors: uneven rates of vaccination against coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and new variants of the virus; inflationary pressure and difficulty in maintaining fiscal stimulus packages; trade tensions and risks in the Chinese real estate sector; disruption of supply chains and rises in freight charges; and extreme events caused by climate change.The conflict will have an impact on the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean through several channels, but primarily the trade channel (with direct and indirect effects), the commodity price channel (including terms of trade and inflation issues) and the financial channel. A. Three channels that transmit the impact of the conflict to the region. 1. Trade channel. 2. Pricing channel. 3. Financial channel .-- B. Macroeconomic effects. 1. Inflation and monetary policy. 2. Fiscal policy. 3. Economic activity, employment and poverty .-- C. Proposals amid a worsening context marked by uncertainty and volatility.

     

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  18. Macroeconomic responses to uncertainty shocks
    the perils of recursive orderings
    Erschienen: November 2022
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department, Dallas

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department ; 2223
    Schlagworte: Cholesky decomposition; orthogonalization; simultaneity; endogeneity; uncertainty; business cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. The impact of Brexit on migration from the V4 countries to the UK: migrant strategies
    report from qualitative research 2019-2023
    Erschienen: July 2023
    Verlag:  Centre of Migration Research, [Warsaw]

    The result of the 2016 Brexit referendum came as a shock to European public opinion. It was the first time a country was leaving the structures of the EU. It raised a number of questions and concerns especially in the countries of Central and Eastern... mehr

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    The result of the 2016 Brexit referendum came as a shock to European public opinion. It was the first time a country was leaving the structures of the EU. It raised a number of questions and concerns especially in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, from which thousands of citizens emigrated to the UK after their accession to the EU in 2004 and the opening of the British labor market to them. Brexit changed the status quo and introduced uncertainty. In many cases, it forced decisions that had been postponed for years and was a motivation to regularize residency status, which, thanks to the functioning of migrants within the common European market, had not required any regulation until now. For some migrants, it was a moment to rethink their chosen life strategy, including considering the option of returning to their homeland or moving elsewhere. For others, it was a motivating factor to start obtaining British citizenship. Brexit later proved to be just one of many crisis events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and rising inflation across Europe, that affected migrants' life strategies. The four Visegrad countries had much in common in history, and together they experienced the problems of the post-1989 period of political and economic transformation, and later went through the process of integration into the European Union. Among the consequences of these processes was a wave of emigration to the United Kingdom, which all V4 countries experienced, albeit to varying degrees. This report on qualitative research conducted between 2019 and 2023 by four research institutions from each of the V4 countries was produced with funding from the International Visegrad Fund. It contributes to a comparative analysis.

     

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    hdl: 10419/296980
    Schriftenreihe: CMR working papers ; 133 = 191
    Schlagworte: Brexit; Visegrad Group; migration; life strategy; uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 70 Seiten)
  20. Survey-derived proxies for uncertainty
    the case of Cyprus
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, [Nicosia]

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    Schriftenreihe: Economic policy papers ; no. 20, 03 (August 2020)
    Schlagworte: uncertainty; business and consumer surveys; Cyprus
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Under attack
    terrorism and international trade in France, 2014-16
    Erschienen: December 28, 2019
    Verlag:  Verein für Socialpolitik, [Köln]

    Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France... mehr

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    Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France over the period from January 2015 to July 2016. Using firm-level data at monthly frequency, we document an immediate and lasting decline in cross-border trade after a mass terrorist attack. The reduction in trade mainly takes place along the intensive margin, with particularly strong effects for partner countries with low border barriers to France, for firms with less frequent trade activities and for homogeneous products. A possible explanation for these patterns is an increase in trade costs due to stricter security measures.

     

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    hdl: 10419/224652
    Schriftenreihe: Jahrestagung 2020 / Verein für Socialpolitik ; 125
    Schlagworte: shock; insecurity; uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Confidence as a driver of private investment in selected countries of Central America
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    This paper argues that structural weaknesses may make private investment particularly sensitive to business confidence relative to other traditional investment drivers and global shocks. It gauges the importance of confidence over recent years in... mehr

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    Orient-Institut Beirut
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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    This paper argues that structural weaknesses may make private investment particularly sensitive to business confidence relative to other traditional investment drivers and global shocks. It gauges the importance of confidence over recent years in selected countries in Central America, including Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Guatemala. Using a vector error correction model to carry out the empirical work, a system representing global activity and the domestic economy, including a set of investment drivers (interest rates, unit labor costs, and confidence) is analyzed. The findings suggest that confidence has been, on average, the most important driver of investment in these countries, exceeded only by global factors. Since confidence, arguably, can be influenced by policymakers' decisions, structural reforms to improve the business climate and reduce uncertainty play an important role in promoting investment and economic growth

     

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  23. Strategic uncertainty and probabilistic sophistication
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan

    This paper uses laboratory experiments to study subjects’ assessment of uncertainty resulting from strategic and non-strategic decisions of other players. Nonstrategic events are defined by the colors of balls drawn from urns, whereas strategic... mehr

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    DS 198
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    This paper uses laboratory experiments to study subjects’ assessment of uncertainty resulting from strategic and non-strategic decisions of other players. Nonstrategic events are defined by the colors of balls drawn from urns, whereas strategic events are defined by the action choice in Stag Hunt (SH) and Prisoners’ Dilemma (PD) games. We elicit subjects’ matching probabilities and examine if they satisfy the law of probability including monotonicity and additivity. Violations from the law are observed for both uncertainty sources, but are more substantial for strategic uncertainty. In particular, we observe a coordination fallacy, a violation of monotonicity whereby the probability weight placed on a symmetric coordination profile of the games exceeds that placed on the corresponding action choice. The violation is found to be severer for an efficient coordination profile.

     

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/234929
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / The Institute of Social and Economic Research ; no. 1117
    Schlagworte: matching probability; ambiguity; uncertainty; coordination; conjunction
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten)
  24. GARCH analyses of risk and uncertainty in the theories of the interest rate of Keynes and Kalecki
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche, Wien

    This study attempts to identify uncertainty in the long-term rate of interest based on the controversial interest rate theories of Keynes and Kalecki. While Keynes stated that the future of the rate of interest is uncertain because it is numerically... mehr

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    This study attempts to identify uncertainty in the long-term rate of interest based on the controversial interest rate theories of Keynes and Kalecki. While Keynes stated that the future of the rate of interest is uncertain because it is numerically incalculable, Kalecki was convinced that it could be predicted. The theories are empirically tested using a reduced-form GARCH-in-mean model assigned to six globally leading financial markets. The obtained results support Keynes's theory - the long-term rate of interest is a nonergodic financial phenomenon. Analyses of the relation between the interest rate and macroeconomic variables without interest uncertainty are thus seriously incomplete.

     

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/240634
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / wiiw ; 191
    Schlagworte: uncertainty; interest rate; Keynes; Kalecki; GARCH
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Uncertainty as a Poetic Principle: A Reading of the Opening Scene in Joseph Ben Zabara’s The Book of Delight
    Autor*in: Einat-Nov, Idit
    Erschienen: 2021

    Abstract This article proposes a new reading of the opening scene of Joseph Ben Meir Ibn Zabara’s twelfth century (at the latest: 1209) The Book of Delight . This reading derives from the hypothesis that this art of storytelling is based on a poetic... mehr

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    Abstract This article proposes a new reading of the opening scene of Joseph Ben Meir Ibn Zabara’s twelfth century (at the latest: 1209) The Book of Delight . This reading derives from the hypothesis that this art of storytelling is based on a poetic principle of uncertainty, and is therefore associated with the various forms of the ambiguous and the ambivalent (the grotesque, the uncanny, the ironic, etc.). As I have argued elsewhere about other rhymed Hebrew stories, this approach is appropriate, in my view, to the character of some of the most fascinating rhymed stories produced in medieval Hebrew literature. In the present study I suggest yet another demonstration of the poetic benefit that can accrue from the adoption of this approach.

     

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Aufsatz aus einer Zeitschrift
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    Übergeordneter Titel: Enthalten in: European journal of jewish studies; Biggleswade : Brill, 2007; 15(2021), 1, Seite 153-168; Online-Ressource

    Schlagworte: the uncanny; uncertainty; The Book of Delight; Joseph Ben Meir Ibn Zabara