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  1. Coupling labor supply decisions
    an experiment in India
    Autor*in: Lowe, Matt; McKelway, Madeline
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Joint household decision-making may be prevented by the incentives of individuals to withhold information or avoid bargaining. We study whether these barriers to joint decision-making keep female labor force participation low in India. In partnership... mehr

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    Joint household decision-making may be prevented by the incentives of individuals to withhold information or avoid bargaining. We study whether these barriers to joint decision-making keep female labor force participation low in India. In partnership with one of India’s largest carpet producers, we offered a weaving job to 495 married women. We randomized whether job information and a ticket enabling enrollment were given to the wife or to the husband, and cross-randomized the non-ticketed spouse to one of three information sets. With no information, the ticketed spouse could plausibly deny the existence of the job ticket to prevent enrollment. With information, the non-ticketed spouse was also informed about the job opportunity. With discussion, both spouses were given three minutes to discuss the job opportunity together. Our motivating model predicts that both information and discussion should raise enrollment, and nearly all intra-household experts we surveyed gave the same qualitative predictions. In reality, information had no effect on enrollment, and discussion reduced enrollment by as much as 50%. We sketch an alternative model in which interventions that make household decision-making more joint give both spouses veto power and reduce enrollment. Supporting this model, the negative effects on enrollment are driven by couples that disagree about the appropriateness of women working as weavers.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/248991
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9446 (2021)
    Schlagworte: intra-household; gender; bargaining; expert survey; India
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 77 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Pricing carbon
    Autor*in: Drupp, Moritz A.; Nesje, Frikk; Schmidt, Robert C.
    Erschienen: March 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We study the variation of global and unilateral carbon price recommendations and their determinants. To this end, we provide survey evidence on carbon pricing from more than 400 experts across almost 40 countries. We quantify the extent of... mehr

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    We study the variation of global and unilateral carbon price recommendations and their determinants. To this end, we provide survey evidence on carbon pricing from more than 400 experts across almost 40 countries. We quantify the extent of (dis-)agreement and reveal that a majority of experts can agree on some short- and medium-term global carbon price levels, and on unilateral carbon price levels in most countries. We find little evidence for free-riding. Indeed, experts' unilateral carbon price recommendations with border carbon adjustment are, on average, higher than global recommendations. Furthermore, border carbon adjustment facilitates higher price recommendations and tends to foster agreement among experts on carbon price levels. We analyze how experts' recommendations vary with additional survey data on key policy design issues, such as instrument choice, other likely determinants of carbon price recommendations as well as country characteristics and observable expert characteristics.

     
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    hdl: 10419/252125
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9608 (2022)
    Schlagworte: carbon pricing; expert survey; carbon tax; emission trading; border carbon adjustment; climate policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 84 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Macroprudential policy in central banks: integrated or separate?
    survey among academics and central bankers
    Autor*in: Malovaná, Simona; Hodula, Martin; Gric, Zuzana; Bajzík, Josef
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Czech National Bank, Economic Research Division, Praha

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    Schriftenreihe: Research and policy notes / Czech National Bank ; 2021,4
    Schlagworte: Central banking; expert survey; institutional arrangement; macroprudentialpolicy; monetary policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. What should the inflation target be?
    views from 600 economists
    Autor*in: Ambrocio, Gene; Ferrero, Andrea; Jokivuolle, Esa; Ristolainen, Kim
    Erschienen: 9 May 2022
    Verlag:  Bank of Finland, Helsinki

    In a survey of more than 600 economists, most respondents prefer their central bank to have an explicit inflation target. Roughly half want the central bank to keep its current target. Two thirds of the rest want to raise the target, with a median... mehr

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    In a survey of more than 600 economists, most respondents prefer their central bank to have an explicit inflation target. Roughly half want the central bank to keep its current target. Two thirds of the rest want to raise the target, with a median preferred change of one percentage point. In a hypothetical scenario in which the central bank has no prior history of inflation targeting, an additional 12% of the respondents would prefer a different (typically higher) target than the current one. This result suggests that the costs of changing the current target hold some respondents back from wanting an actual target change. Respondents who are worried about the central bank credibility are less likely to support a target raise. Conversely, preference for a target raise is more likely to come from those who are concerned about the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate. The average estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate in the sample is 0.6%. However, personal views about the equilibrium real interest rate do not predict a preference for a target raise.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9789523234093
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/253692
    Schriftenreihe: Bank of Finland research discussion papers ; 2022, 7
    Schlagworte: expert survey; inflation target; monetary policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. What should the inflation target be?
    views from 600 economists
    Autor*in: Ambrocio, Gene; Ferrero, Andrea; Jokivuolle, Esa; Ristolainen, Kim
    Erschienen: 08 May 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP17289
    Schlagworte: expert survey; inflation target; monetary policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Macroprudential policy in central banks: integrated or separate?
    survey among academics and central bankers
    Autor*in: Malovaná, Simona; Hodula, Martin; Gric, Zuzana; Bajzík, Josef
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Prague

    We surveyed experts from academia, central banks and other regulatory institutions on the preferred institutional setup of macroprudential policy and the underlying interactions stemming from the conduct of monetary and macroprudential policy. We... mehr

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    We surveyed experts from academia, central banks and other regulatory institutions on the preferred institutional setup of macroprudential policy and the underlying interactions stemming from the conduct of monetary and macroprudential policy. We find substantial support for the integration setup, under which macroprudential policy is entrusted to the central bank and not to a separate institution. The most significant factors driving the respondents’ views are the large degree of interdependence of the two policies, the potential information gains from keeping them “under one roof”, and a greater capability to resolve strategic conflicts. We identify non-negligible heterogeneity in the responses, especially in terms of respondents’ age, managerial position and research orientation.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: IES occasional paper ; 2022, 1
    Schlagworte: central banking; expert survey; institutional arrangement; macroprudential policy; monetary policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Philosophers and economists can agree on the intergenerational discount rate and climate policy paths
    Autor*in: Nesje, Frikk; Drupp, Moritz A.; Freeman, Mark C.; Groom, Benjamin
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    The estimated values to society from long-term public projects, including climate change mitigation and infrastructure construction, are highly sensitive to the social discount rate (SDR) employed. Governmental guidance on social discounting has... mehr

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    The estimated values to society from long-term public projects, including climate change mitigation and infrastructure construction, are highly sensitive to the social discount rate (SDR) employed. Governmental guidance on social discounting has predominantly been based on input from expert economists. It is not clear, however, that economists possess any special expertise on the ethical issues that underpin long-term societal decision-making. This study compares expert economists' views on key components of the long-term SDR with those of a disciplinary group of experts who may be deemed most trained on ethical matters: philosophers. The results indicate that both expert groups provide surprisingly similar recommendations on these components and on the SDR itself, with a real SDR recommendation of 2% receiving most support in both disciplines. An analysis of qualitative remarks shows areas of broad agreement and yet distinct differences in rationales. While economists provide numerous technical extensions within a consequentialist Discounted Utilitarian approach, philosophers advocate more strongly for alternative ethical approaches to standard Utilitarian calculus. In the politicized world of long-term decision-making, this paper illustrates how more inclusive and deliberative approaches to complex issues such as intergenerational justice can guide more nuanced decision-making today and lead to multidisciplinary support for climate action.

     
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    hdl: 10419/265965
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9930 (2022)
    Schlagworte: intergenerational social discounting; expert survey; philosophy; economics; climate policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. How media content influences economic expectations
    evidence from a global expert survey
    Autor*in: Boumans, Dorine; Müller, Henrik; Sauer, Stefan
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    This article sheds light on the impact of the media on economists' expectations for future economic developments. We conducted a worldwide economic expert survey and find that the media provides most economists with valuable information that... mehr

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    This article sheds light on the impact of the media on economists' expectations for future economic developments. We conducted a worldwide economic expert survey and find that the media provides most economists with valuable information that influences their expectations. This applies significantly more for economists in countries with long standing democratic systems and developing countries with somewhat flawed democratic institutions than for economists in newer democracies and countries with authoritarian regimes. Moreover, the experts estimate the influence of the media remarkably higher on others than on themselves. This is consistent with the theory of the third-person effect that says that an individual's behavior is influenced due to the belief that other people find certain issues important and act accordingly.

     
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    hdl: 10419/266257
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 380 (2022)
    Schlagworte: Economic expectations; media; expert survey; third-person effect
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
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  9. Heterogeneity in expert recommendations for designing carbon pricing policies across the globe
    Autor*in: Nesje, Frikk; Schmidt, Robert C.; Drupp, Moritz A.
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    Pricing the emissions of greenhouse gases is widely considered as key to tackling climate change. While carbon pricing schemes are proliferating, the vast majority of emissions is not yet covered. Designing carbon pricing policies requires navigating... mehr

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    Pricing the emissions of greenhouse gases is widely considered as key to tackling climate change. While carbon pricing schemes are proliferating, the vast majority of emissions is not yet covered. Designing carbon pricing policies requires navigating crucial design choices, such as addressing distributional and competitiveness concerns. Here, we present recommendations from a global survey of more than 400 experts to inform key design issues for carbon pricing policies. We find that almost twice as many experts favor a carbon tax over a cap-and-trade scheme for unilateral carbon pricing, and three-quarters strongly recommend using border carbon adjustment to address competitiveness concerns. Recommendations on the usage of revenues from carbon pricing exhibit a substantial degree of heterogeneity. While transfers to particularly affected households and equal lump sum transfers are among the options most favored, these account for only around 40 percent of recommendations. In terms of country and observable expert characteristics, we find that experts from countries with a higher GDP per capita recommend equal lump sum transfers to households more often, and that the clear preference for carbon taxes only exists in richer countries. While economists recommend lump-sum transfers to households and reducing distortionary taxes more often, non-economic experts rather recommend using revenue for governmental spending, such as on environmental public goods or renewable energy subsidies. Overall, our results provide insights for science and policy to improve the design of unilateral carbon pricing policies.

     
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    hdl: 10419/279371
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: September 2023
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10620 (2023)
    Schlagworte: carbon pricing; expert survey; carbon tax; emission trading; border carbon adjustment; revenue recycling
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Swiftness and delay of punishment
    Autor*in: Dušek, Libor; Traxler, Christian
    Erschienen: January 2024
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    This paper studies how the swiftness and delay of punishment affect behavior. Using rich administrative data from automated speed cameras, we exploit two (quasi-)experimental sources of variation in the time between a speeding offense and the sending... mehr

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    This paper studies how the swiftness and delay of punishment affect behavior. Using rich administrative data from automated speed cameras, we exploit two (quasi-)experimental sources of variation in the time between a speeding offense and the sending of a ticket. At the launch of the speed camera system, administrative challenges caused delays of up to three months. Later, we implemented a protocol that randomly assigned tickets to swift or delayed processing. We identify two different results. First, delays have a negative effect on payment compliance: the rate of timely paid fines diminishes by 7 to 9% when a ticket is sent with a delay of four or more weeks. We also find some evidence that very swift tickets - sent on the first or second day following the offense - increase timely payments. These results align with the predictions of expert scholars that we elicited in a survey. Second, speeding tickets cause a strong, immediate, and persistent decline in speeding. However, we do not detect any robust, differential effects of swiftness or delay on speeding. This challenges widely held beliefs, as reflected in our survey. Yet, we document large mechanical benefits of swift punishment and provide a theoretical framework of learning and updating that explains our findings.

     
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    hdl: 10419/295995
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10906 (2024)
    Schlagworte: law enforcement; celerity of punishment; swiftness; specific deterrence; speeding; payment compliance; expert survey
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen