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  1. Population aging and fiscal policy in Europe and the United States
    Autor*in: Gokhale, Jagadeesh; Raffelhüschen, Bernd
    Erschienen: 1999
    Verlag:  Inst. für Finanzwiss., Freiburg im Breisgau

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QC 000
    DDC Klassifikation: Wirtschaft (330); Handel, Kommunikation, Verkehr (380); Management und unterstützende Tätigkeiten (650); Industrielle Fertigung (670)
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / Institut für Finanzwissenschaft der Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg im Breisgau ; 80
    Schlagworte: Finanzpolitik; Intergenerative Belastungsrechnung; Generationengerechtigkeit; Vergleich; Altersstruktur; Fiskalpolitik; Bevölkerungswachstum
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)Finanzpolitik; (stw)Generationengerechtigkeit; (stw)Vergleich; (stw)EU-Staaten; (stw)USA; (stw)Alternde Bevölkerung; population aging; fiscal policy; europe; (local)workingPaper; Arbeitspapier; Graue Literatur; Buch
    Umfang: 18 S., graph. Darst., 30 cm
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    Literaturverz. S. 16 - 18
  2. Population aging, relative prices and capital flows across the globe
    Autor*in: Papetti, Andrea
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Banca d'Italia Eurosistema, [Rom]

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    Schriftenreihe: Temi di discussione / Banca d'Italia ; number 1333 (April 2021)
    Schlagworte: population aging; relative prices; capital flows; overlapping generations; tradable nontradable; secular stagnation; structural transformation; global imbalances
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 71 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Population aging and migration
    Autor*in: Poutvaara, Panu
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    International migration flows largely reflect demographic patterns and economic opportunities. Migration flows increase in expected income and other pull factors in potential destinations, and in push factors in the origin, like high unemployment,... mehr

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    International migration flows largely reflect demographic patterns and economic opportunities. Migration flows increase in expected income and other pull factors in potential destinations, and in push factors in the origin, like high unemployment, low wages, and high population growth. Migration flows decrease in the geographic and cultural distance between the potential origin and destination, and in other migration costs. To the extent that migrants are employed, immigration can alleviate challenges arising from population aging. For origin countries, the effects of migration may go either way, depending on whether increased incentives to invest in education are sufficient to compensate the loss of skilled workers. Throughout the 20th century, Northern America and Australia and New Zealand attracted highest immigration flows. Latin America was consistently a continent of emigration. Europe went through a major reversal from a continent of emigration until 1950s to a continent of immigration. In the 21st century, crucial questions for demographic and migration research are how fertility rate and emigration rate are going to develop in Africa. Even modest increases in emigration from Africa would generate major increases in immigration pressure in the rest of the world, mostly in Europe. Other major questions on the future research agenda are the effects of the climate change and rapid improvements in information technology.

     
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    hdl: 10419/236647
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9105 (2021)
    Schlagworte: international migration; population aging; demographic trends; fertility; immigrant workers
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Korea's growth prospects
    overcoming demographics and COVID-19
    Autor*in: Swiston, Andrew
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Korea's economy has leaped to high-income status thanks to several decades of sustained high growth. However, population aging and shifts in global demand provide headwinds for future growth and Korea now faces the effects of COVID-19 on economic... mehr

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    Korea's economy has leaped to high-income status thanks to several decades of sustained high growth. However, population aging and shifts in global demand provide headwinds for future growth and Korea now faces the effects of COVID-19 on economic activity. This paper asseses the expected drag on potential growth from these factors and discusses policies that could provide offsetting upward momentum by facilitating structural transformation. We find that potential output growth slowed to about 2 1\2 percent before the COVID-19 pandemic and would have fallen to 2 percent by 2030, mainly due to demographic factors. Moreover, there is a possibility of scarring from the COVID-19 shock as adjustment frictions from structural rigidities interact with shifts in demand and supply patterns, lowering investment and labor force participation. At the same time, industry-level analysis suggests ample scope to raise productivity, especially in services where productivity gains have lagged. Addressing these rigidities could offset a large proportion of the expected downward pressure on potential output

     
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    ISBN: 9781513575216
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 92
    Schlagworte: Korea; productivity; demographics; population aging; potential growth; multivariate filter; accelerator model; structural reform; COVID-19; potential output; Capacity; Capital; Employment; Intangible Capital; Investment; Diseases: Contagious; International Economics; Labor; Economics: General; Production and Operations Management; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity; Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity; Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence; Macroeconomics: Production; Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition; Production; Cost; Capital and Total Factor Productivity; Capacity; Labor Economics: General; Health Behavior; Economic & financial crises & disasters; Economics of specific sectors; Macroeconomics; Labour; income economics; Infectious & contagious diseases; Macroeconomics; Production; Labor force participation; Labor; Capacity utilization; Total factor productivity; Currency crises; Informal sector; Economics; Production; Economic theory; Labor market; Industrial productivity; Industrial capacity; Labor economics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Korea's growth prospects
    overcoming demographics and COVID-19
    Autor*in: Swiston, Andrew
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Korea's economy has leaped to high-income status thanks to several decades of sustained high growth. However, population aging and shifts in global demand provide headwinds for future growth and Korea now faces the effects of COVID-19 on economic... mehr

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    Korea's economy has leaped to high-income status thanks to several decades of sustained high growth. However, population aging and shifts in global demand provide headwinds for future growth and Korea now faces the effects of COVID-19 on economic activity. This paper asseses the expected drag on potential growth from these factors and discusses policies that could provide offsetting upward momentum by facilitating structural transformation. We find that potential output growth slowed to about 2 1\2 percent before the COVID-19 pandemic and would have fallen to 2 percent by 2030, mainly due to demographic factors. Moreover, there is a possibility of scarring from the COVID-19 shock as adjustment frictions from structural rigidities interact with shifts in demand and supply patterns, lowering investment and labor force participation. At the same time, industry-level analysis suggests ample scope to raise productivity, especially in services where productivity gains have lagged. Addressing these rigidities could offset a large proportion of the expected downward pressure on potential output

     
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 92
    Schlagworte: Korea; productivity; demographics; population aging; potential output; potential growth; multivariate filter; accelerator model; structural reform; COVID-19; Capacity; Capital; Employment; Intangible Capital; Investment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Promoting healthy living in Latin America and the Caribbean
    governance of multisectoral activities to prevent risk factors for noncommunicable diseases
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  World Bank, Washington, DC

    The Latin American and Caribbean region has been undergoing a rapid demographic and epidemiological transition, which has had important health and economic consequences. Not only is the population aging rapidly, it is also experiencing major... mehr

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    The Latin American and Caribbean region has been undergoing a rapid demographic and epidemiological transition, which has had important health and economic consequences. Not only is the population aging rapidly, it is also experiencing major lifestyle changes. These changes, in turn, have altered the disease and mortality profile of the region, resulting in a greater weight of noncommunicable diseases-such as heart disease, stroke, cancer, and diabetes-within the overall disease burden. As they affect more and more people, noncommunicable diseases pose a growing economic and development threat

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781464800177
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10986/16376
    Schriftenreihe: Array
    Directions in Development--Human Development
    Schlagworte: Gesundheitsvorsorge; Gesundheitspolitik; Gesundheitsrisiko; Lateinamerika; Karibischer Raum; disability; economic impact; NCDs; health systems cost; intermediate risk factors; high blood pressure/hypertension; high blood cholesterol; high blood glucose; overweight; obesity; modifiable behavioral risk factors; unhealthy diets; physical inactivity; tobacco use; alcohol abuse; multi-sectoral interventions; non-communicable diseases; population aging
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (XXIV, 221 S.), graph. Darst.
    Bemerkung(en):

    Description based upon print version of record

    Enth. 6 Beitr

    Front Cover; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; Tables; Figures; Box; Acknowledgments; About the Authors; Abbreviations; Overview; The Health and Economic Burden of NCDs in LAC; Risk Factors for NCDs in LAC; International Experience in Multisectoral Interventions to Prevent Health Risk Factors: Overcoming Governance Challenges Involved in Their Design and Implementation; Multisectoral Interventions to Prevent Health Risk Factors in LAC-The Unfinished Agenda; Notes; Bibliography; Introduction; Note; Bibliography; Chapter 1 Noncommunicable Diseases in Latin America and the Caribbean

    Who Is Most Affected?Differences in NCD Death Rates by Sex; Notes; Bibliography; Chapter 2 Risk Factors for NCDs in Latin America and the Caribbean; Chapter 3 Economic Impact of NCDs in Latin America and the Caribbean; Chapter 4 Governance of Multisectoral Interventions to Promote Healthy Living: International Examples; Chapter 5 Multisectoral Interventions to Promote Healthy Living in Latin America and the Caribbean; Chapter 6 Lessons Learned and Agenda for the Future

    Appendix A Survey Sources, Health Status Surveyed, and Information on NCDs and Disability, for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, and Honduras, Various YearsAppendix B Dietary Analysis Methodology; Back Cover
  7. The automatic adjustment of pension expenditures in Spain
    an evaluation of the 2013 pension reform
    Autor*in: Sánchez Martín, Alfonso R.
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 1420
    Schlagworte: pension reform; automatic adjustment mechanism; population aging; Spain
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
    Bemerkung(en):

    Zusammenfassung in spanischer Sprache
  8. The future of long-term care in Quebec
    what are the cost savings from a realistic shift towards more home care?
    Autor*in: Clavet, Nicholas-James; Hébert, Réjean; Michaud, Pierre-Carl; Navaux, Julien
    Erschienen: April 2022
    Verlag:  Chaire de recherche sur les enjeux économiques intergénérationnels, [Montréal]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Chaire de recherche sur les enjeux économiques intergénérationnels ; 22, 01
    Schlagworte: long-term care; population aging; public finances
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. A comparative perspective on long-term care systems
    Autor*in: Kotschy, Rainer; Bloom, David E.
    Erschienen: April 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper investigates challenges of aging for long-term care. Our analysis proceeds in three steps. In the first step, we estimate the prospective care demand for 30 developed countries based on projected aging and disabilities among the elderly.... mehr

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    This paper investigates challenges of aging for long-term care. Our analysis proceeds in three steps. In the first step, we estimate the prospective care demand for 30 developed countries based on projected aging and disabilities among the elderly. In the second step, we outline challenges for care systems with respect to shortages of care workers, increasing skill requirements for care workers, barriers to universal and equitable access to care, and cost containment subject to adequate care quality. In the third step, we identify solutions for these challenges by comparing the care systems of Germany, Israel, Japan, the Netherlands, and South Korea.

     
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    hdl: 10419/263444
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15228
    Schlagworte: long-term care insurance; population aging; care demand; ADL; IADL
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. The future of long-term care in Quebec
    what are the cost savings from a realistic shift towards more home care?
    Autor*in: Clavet, Nicholas-James; Hébert, Réjean; Michaud, Pierre-Carl; Navaux, Julien
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  CIRANO, [Montréal]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / CIRANO ; 2022s, 09
    Schlagworte: long-term care; population aging; public finances
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten, Illustrationen
  11. Elderly poverty and its measurement
    Autor*in: Niimi, Yoko; Horioka, Charles
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan

    This paper examines various aspects of elderly poverty and its measurement. It first discusses some of the most important issues relating to measuring elderly poverty. It then reviews recent trends in elderly poverty, which show considerable... mehr

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    This paper examines various aspects of elderly poverty and its measurement. It first discusses some of the most important issues relating to measuring elderly poverty. It then reviews recent trends in elderly poverty, which show considerable heterogeneity in the extent of elderly poverty even among developed countries. Such cross-country differences are due at least partly to differences in the generosity of public old-age pensions and other social safety nets for the elderly. Empirical evidence also corroborates that the expansion of public pension programs has often played a key role in reducing elderly poverty.

     
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    hdl: 10419/248608
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / The Institute of Social and Economic Research ; no. 1149
    Schlagworte: elderly poverty; population aging; poverty measurement; public pensions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 14 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Cross-country differences in the long-run economic impacts of increased fertility
    Autor*in: Davoine, Thomas
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Institut für Höhere Studien - Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), Wien

    Higher fertility slowly increases the workers-to-retirees ratio over the long run, which can ease the pension financing challenge brought about by population aging. It may or may not increase production per capita. Existing simulation studies all... mehr

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    Higher fertility slowly increases the workers-to-retirees ratio over the long run, which can ease the pension financing challenge brought about by population aging. It may or may not increase production per capita. Existing simulation studies all find a positive impact on public finances over the long run. They however differ on the impact on output per capita. Whether differences are due to model designs or country characteristics is unknown. Using the same macroeconomic model for a sample of 14 European countries, I find that the long-run pension deficits are reduced 27% on average, if one woman out of five had one more child in her lifetime. Variations across countries are small. On the other hand, I find that output per capita increases in all countries from my sample, with one exception. Differences in population structures, age-productivity profiles and pension systems can explain the exception. Fertility-promoting policies will always ease the public finance challenge due to population aging, but may worsen output per capita if pension payments are too loosely connected to earnings histories or if age-productivity profiles are very steep.

     
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    hdl: 10419/250052
    Schriftenreihe: IHS working paper ; 38 (January 2022)
    Schlagworte: fertility; population aging; pensions; productivity profiles; computable general equilibrium
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Population aging and bank risk-taking
    Autor*in: Dörr, Sebastian; Kabas, Gazi; Ongena, Steven
    Erschienen: November 2022
    Verlag:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Schriftenreihe: BIS working papers ; no 1050
    Schlagworte: Risk-taking; nancial stability; low interest rates; population aging; demographics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. The case for dynamic cities
    Autor*in: Asquith, Brian J.; Bock, Margaret C.
    Erschienen: 9-20-2022
    Verlag:  W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, Kalamazoo, MI

    Cities today are confronting never-before-seen challenges to their top spot in the economic hierarchy. In this chapter, we lay out four challenges, past and future, that cities face today and identify policies that can help address the problems we... mehr

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    Cities today are confronting never-before-seen challenges to their top spot in the economic hierarchy. In this chapter, we lay out four challenges, past and future, that cities face today and identify policies that can help address the problems we identify. We call attention to the need for many U.S. cities to redevelop the large amount of aging postwar single-family housing, while reforming past exclusionary zoning and infrastructure decisions that exacerbated inequality. Cities will have to fix these past mistakes against the backdrop of an aging population and the rise of remote working, both of which undercut cities' traditional source of growth by reducing the flow of younger and middle-aged people willing to live in urban centers. The common theme running throughout this paper is that cities, their residents and their business leaders will need to embrace a dynamic ethos and be given a freer hand to reposition their municipalities to face a future that is shaping up to be quite different from the past.

     
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    hdl: 10419/283968
    Schriftenreihe: Upjohn Institute working paper ; 22, 373
    Schlagworte: Zoning; infrastructure; housing; population aging
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten)
  15. Aging and real estate prices in Germany
    Autor*in: Breidenbach, Philipp; Jäger, Philipp; Taruttis, Lisa
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Essen, Germany

    Exploiting regional heterogeneity in population dynamics across more than 10,000 municipalities in Germany, we provide robust empirical evidence that population aging depresses real estate prices and rents. Using millions of individual real estate... mehr

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    Exploiting regional heterogeneity in population dynamics across more than 10,000 municipalities in Germany, we provide robust empirical evidence that population aging depresses real estate prices and rents. Using millions of individual real estate offers and detailed demographic data on the municipality level, we estimate that average sales prices in 2020 would have been up to 12% higher, if the population age distribution had been the same as in 2008. We show that population aging does not only reduce prices but also increases the availability of real estate. Moreover, we document substantial heterogeneity in price responses by dwelling type, real estate characteristics and urban-rural status which suggest that a lower demand for living space and live-cycle dissaving are driving our results. We predict that population aging will continue to put downward pressure on real estate prices and exacerbate regional disparities in Germany. Mit Hilfe der regionalen Heterogenitäten der Alterungsprozesse in mehr als 10.000 Gemeinden in Deutschland zeigt dieser Beitrag, dass die Bevölkerungsalterung negativ auf die Immobilienpreise und -mieten wirkt. Auf der Grundlage des umfangreichen Datensatzes RWI-GEO-RED zu Immobilienangeboten auf Basis von Immobilienscout24 und detaillierten demografischen Daten auf Gemeindeebene schätzen wir, dass die durchschnittlichen Verkaufspreise im Jahr 2020 um bis zu 12% höher gewesen wären, wenn die Altersverteilung der Bevölkerung die gleiche gewesen wäre wie im Jahr 2008. Wir zeigen, dass die Bevölkerungsalterung nicht nur die Preise senkt, sondern auch die Verfügbarkeit von Immobilien erhöht. Darüber hinaus dokumentieren wir eine erhebliche Heterogenität der Preisreaktionen nach Wohnungstyp, Immobilienmerkmalen und Stadt-Land-Status, was darauf hindeutet, dass eine geringere Nachfrage nach Wohnraum und lebenszyklisches Sparen unsere Ergebnisse antreiben. Wir prognostizieren, dass die Bevölkerungsalterung weiterhin Druck auf die Immobilienpreise ausüben und die regionalen Unterschiede in Deutschland verschärfen wird.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; #953
    Schlagworte: Real estate prices; population aging; Germany
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  16. Elderly poverty and its measurement
    Autor*in: Niimi, Yoko; Horioka, Charles
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  [Asian Growth Research Institute], [Fukuoka, Japan]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Asian Growth Research Institute ; vol. 2021, 08
    Schlagworte: elderly poverty; population aging; poverty measurement; public pensions
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  17. Aging population in Asian countries
    lessons from Japanese experiences
    Autor*in: Oku, Ai; Ichimura, Eri; Tsukamoto, Mika
    Erschienen: July 2017
    Verlag:  Research Department, Policy Research Institute, MOF, Tokyo, Japan

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    Schriftenreihe: PRI discussion paper series ; no. 17A, 12
    Schlagworte: population aging; social security system; social benefit; health care; pension; Asia; Japan
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  18. Demographic transition and its impacts on fiscal sustainability in East and Southeast Asia
    Autor*in: Korwatanasakul, Upalat; Pitchaya Sirivunnabood; Majoe, Adam
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, Japan

    Many economies in East and Southeast Asia are progressing toward becoming aging or aged societies. The impacts of this demographic transition are multifaceted and far-reaching and include declining tax revenues, leading to fiscal imbalances, and... mehr

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    Many economies in East and Southeast Asia are progressing toward becoming aging or aged societies. The impacts of this demographic transition are multifaceted and far-reaching and include declining tax revenues, leading to fiscal imbalances, and possible increases in government expenditures for coping with care expenses and pension schemes. This study aims to provide insights into ways to balance fiscal revenue against costly pension and social security systems and increasing healthcare expenditures. Using panel data for 178 countries across 18 years to capture the state of fiscal balance and data on demographic transition, we estimate three models to analyze the relationships between (i) demographic transition and government balance, (ii) demographic transition and government health expenditure, and (iii) demographic transition and government debt. The results first establish that health expenditure is negatively associated with the government balance. Then, for the relationship between demographic transition and health expenditure, old-age dependency and the share of the population aged over 64 shows a significant positive relationship with health expenditure. We find that demographic transition does not have a direct effect on the government balance, but instead has an indirect effect through higher government expenditure. This can be explained by the high costs of treating health conditions related to old age, including chronic illnesses. Our findings provide important implications for fiscal sustainability and necessitate comprehensive reviews of public health spending; healthcare reforms that prioritize accessibility for all and efficiency in healthcare services; and cost-sharing measures to mitigate the age-related fiscal burden. These measures will be particularly important in dealing with the impacts of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, to which the elderly are particularly vulnerable.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: ADBI working paper series ; no. 1220 (March 2021)
    Schlagworte: demographic transition; population aging; fiscal balance; fiscal sustainability
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  19. Demographic transition for economic development in Taipei,China: literature and policy implications
    Autor*in: Chu, Chin-peng; Yeh, Kuo-chun
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, Japan

    As an economy with a population of 23 million, Taipei,China is enjoying the demographic dividend of economic growth resulting from a shift in the population age structure, but an increasingly aged population could be bad for the economy. As an... mehr

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    As an economy with a population of 23 million, Taipei,China is enjoying the demographic dividend of economic growth resulting from a shift in the population age structure, but an increasingly aged population could be bad for the economy. As an international comparison, its population is aging faster than that of most members of the Asian Development Bank and other advanced economies. Based on the literature, this paper contributes to the evaluation of the impact of aging on economic growth and volatility using relevant data and then concludes with the government policies relevant to the prospective aging problem. At the current stage, the situation is not as bad as expected. An aging workforce with positive productivity has no negative impact on economic growth. The old-age dependency ratio has a significantly negative effect on economic development, but appropriate foreign labor immigration and elderly long-term care policies can mitigate it. Higher education attainment still works to support economic growth in the long run. Besides, an increase in longevity first enhances and then erodes net foreign assets, and high old-age dependency ratios cause investments to respond strongly to technology shocks because individuals prefer to save more for retirement in aging societies. However, population aging has a minor influence on the dynamics of the macroeconomic variables. Nevertheless, the government should be cautious and allocate resources to help labor-intensive and low-skilled industries transform into more innovation-oriented and knowledge-intensive ones. Social welfare support must also become an important aspect of the social security framework.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: ADBI working paper series ; no. 1222 (March 2021)
    Schlagworte: population aging; economic growth; net foreign assets; demographic policy; health care; Taipei,China
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  20. Labor supply of older workers in Thailand: the role of co-residence, health, and pensions
    Autor*in: Sasiwimon Warunsiri Paweenawat; Liao, Lusi
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, Japan

    During the last few decades, the composition of the Thai population has changed dramatically due to reduced fertility and the aging of the population. Thailand's aging society faces many challenges. This is particularly so for older Thai people who... mehr

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    During the last few decades, the composition of the Thai population has changed dramatically due to reduced fertility and the aging of the population. Thailand's aging society faces many challenges. This is particularly so for older Thai people who still have to work for a living due to insufficient savings. This paper first provides an overview of the basic changes related to the labor force participation (LFP) of older people using the Labor Force Survey (LFS) from 1985 to 2017. Then, this study uses Socio-Economic Survey (SES) panel data from 2005 to 2012 and employs the fixed-effect logit model (FE-logit) to estimate the determinants of older people's LFP. Our main findings provide strong evidence that pensions and poorer health status reduce the LFP of older people in Thailand. Furthermore, while health status is significant across all analyses, pensions have less impact on lower-status workers, indicating that even if they receive a pension, they may still be too poor to retire. Finally, co-residence decreases the LFP only of older people in rural areas. Those who are older, with a primary education, and who are usually employed in the informal sector suffer from poverty and require more assistance from others.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: ADBI working paper series ; no. 1224 (March 2021)
    Schlagworte: population aging; older worker; elderly labor supply; Thailand
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  21. Demographics and the natural real interest rate
    historical and projected paths for the euro area
    Autor*in: Papetti, Andrea
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Banca d'Italia Eurosistema, [Rom]

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    Schriftenreihe: Temi di discussione / Banca d'Italia ; number 1306 (November 2020)
    Schlagworte: population aging; natural interest rate; secular stagnation; overlapping generations
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  22. Automation, growth, and factor shares in the era of population aging
    Autor*in: Irmen, Andreas
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    How does population aging affect economic growth and factor shares in times of increasingly automatable production processes? The present paper addresses this question in a new macroeconomic model of automation where competitive firms perform tasks... mehr

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    How does population aging affect economic growth and factor shares in times of increasingly automatable production processes? The present paper addresses this question in a new macroeconomic model of automation where competitive firms perform tasks to produce output. Tasks require labor and machines as inputs. New machines embody superior technological knowledge and substitute for labor in the performance of tasks. Automation is labor-augmenting in the reduced-form aggregate production function. If wages increase then the incentive to automate becomes stronger. Moreover, the labor share declines even though the aggregate production function is Cobb-Douglas. Population aging due to a higher longevity reduces automation in the short and promotes it in the long run. It boosts the growth rate of absolute and per-capita GDP in the short and the long run, lifts the labor share in the short and reduces it in the long run. Population aging due to a decline in fertility increases automation, reduces the growth rate of GDP, and lowers the labor share in the short and the long run. In the short run, it may or may not increase the growth rate of per-capita GDP, in the long run it unequivocally accelerates per-capita GDP growth.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9193 (2021)
    Schlagworte: population aging; automation; factor shares; endogenous technical change; endogenous labor supply
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  23. Population aging and migration
    Autor*in: Poutvaara, Panu
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    International migration flows largely reflect demographic patterns and economic opportunities. Migration flows increase in expected income and other pull factors in potential destinations, and in push factors in the origin, like high unemployment,... mehr

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    International migration flows largely reflect demographic patterns and economic opportunities. Migration flows increase in expected income and other pull factors in potential destinations, and in push factors in the origin, like high unemployment, low wages, and high population growth. Migration flows decrease in the geographic and cultural distance between the potential origin and destination, and in other migration costs. To the extent that migrants are employed, immigration can alleviate challenges arising from population aging. For origin countries, the effects of migration may go either way, depending on whether increased incentives to invest in education are sufficient to compensate the loss of skilled workers. Throughout the 20th century, Northern America and Australia and New Zealand attracted highest immigration flows. Latin America was consistently a continent of emigration. Europe went through a major reversal from a continent of emigration until 1950s to a continent of immigration. In the 21st century, crucial questions for demographic and migration research are how fertility rate and emigration rate are going to develop in Africa. Even modest increases in emigration from Africa would generate major increases in immigration pressure in the rest of the world, mostly in Europe. Other major questions on the future research agenda are the effects of the climate change and rapid improvements in information technology.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14389
    Schlagworte: international migration; population aging; demographic trends; fertility; immigrant workers
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  24. The young, the old, and the government
    demographics and fiscal multipliers
    Autor*in: Basso, Henrique S.; Rachedi, Omar
    Erschienen: 2018
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 1837
    Schlagworte: : life-cycle; population aging; fiscal policy
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  25. Does demography determine democratic attitudes?
    Autor*in: Kotschy, Rainer; Sunde, Uwe
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    This paper presents new evidence on how demography affects democratic attitudes in Western democracies. Using individual survey responses, the empirical analysis disentangles age from cohort patterns and other contemporaneous economic and political... mehr

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    This paper presents new evidence on how demography affects democratic attitudes in Western democracies. Using individual survey responses, the empirical analysis disentangles age from cohort patterns and other contemporaneous economic and political influences that shape democratic attitudes. The results reveal that support for democracy increases with age and is lower for more recent birth cohorts. These patterns are more pronounced in Western democracies than in the former Eastern bloc and in other countries around the world. Additional findings document that demography's effect partly captures heterogeneity in experiences with democracy, and that socioeconomic factors impact democratic attitudes.

     
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    Auflage/Ausgabe: Original version: January 2022, this version: September 2022
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9535 (2022)
    Schlagworte: support for democracy; age-period-cohort models; population aging; demographic composition; stability of democracy; modernization hypothesis
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