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  1. Assessing the Effects of the Terrorist Attacks on the U.S. Economy
  2. Assessing the effects of the terrorist attacks on the US economy
  3. Who creates and destroys jobs over the business cycle?
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  De Nederlandsche Bank NV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / De Nederlandsche Bank NV ; no. 628 (March 2019)
    Schlagworte: Job Creation; Job Destruction; Business Cycle; Small Firms; Large Firms; Young Firms; Mature Firms
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Stock returns and expected business conditions: half a century of direct evidence
    Erschienen: 2005
    Verlag:  Univ.-Bibliothek Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt am Main

  5. US outlook and German confidence : does the confidence channel work?
  6. US outlook and German confidence
    does the confidence channel work?
  7. Business cycle volatility in Germany
    Erschienen: 2002
    Verlag:  Inst. for World Economics, Kiel

  8. Make your own luck: the wage gains from starting college in a bad economy
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  Charles University, Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education, Prague

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    ISBN: 9788073435059; 9788073446000
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / CERGE-EI ; 698
    Schlagworte: Business Cycle; Higher Education; Cohort Effects
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, [Victoria, Australia]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics ; 21, 04
    Schlagworte: Business Cycle; Financial Cycle; Financial shocks
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. The main business cycle shock(s)
    frequency-band estimation of the number of dynamic factors
    Erschienen: 05 May 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP17281
    Schlagworte: Number of Dynamic Factors; Frequency Bands; Business Cycle; PermanentComponent; Generalized Dynamic Factor Models; DSGE
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 97 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  German Council of Economic Experts, [Wiesbaden]

    We jointly estimate the U.S. business and financial cycle through a unified empirical approach while simultaneously accounting for the role of financial factors. Our approach uses the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition within a medium-scale Bayesian... mehr

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    We jointly estimate the U.S. business and financial cycle through a unified empirical approach while simultaneously accounting for the role of financial factors. Our approach uses the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition within a medium-scale Bayesian Vector Autore-gression. First, we show, both in reduced form and when we identify a structural financial shock, that variation in financial factors had a larger role post-2000 and a more modest role pre-2000. Our results suggest that the financial sector did play a role in overheatingthe business cycle pre-Great Recession. Second, while we document a positive unconditional correlation between the credit cycle and the output gap, the correlation of the lagged credit cycle and the contemporaneous output gap turns negative when we condition on a financial shock. The sign-switch suggests that the nature of the underlying shocks may be important for understanding the relationship between the business and financial cycles.

     

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    hdl: 10419/242944
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / German Council of Economic Experts ; 2021, 02 (September 2021)
    Schlagworte: Business Cycle; Financial Cycle; Financial shocks
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 68 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Estimating financial integration in Europe
    how to separate structural trends from cyclical fluctuations
    Erschienen: November 2022
    Verlag:  European Investment Bank, Luxembourg

    We construct a new indicator of de facto financial integration in the EU. The resulting indicator is pro-cyclical as it evolves along the cyclical pattern of economic activity in the European Union. It is then appended to a set of relevant financial... mehr

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    We construct a new indicator of de facto financial integration in the EU. The resulting indicator is pro-cyclical as it evolves along the cyclical pattern of economic activity in the European Union. It is then appended to a set of relevant financial and macroeconomic variables, within a FAVAR framework, to allow us to separate the impact of cyclical boom-bust shocks from structural integration shocks. Increasing structural financial integration tends to improve risk absorption and reduce income disparities among European countries. However, our analysis suggests that most of the movements in the indicator reflect business cycle dynamics, not proper integration. Given the estimated beneficial effects of stronger structural financial integration, these results highlight the need to develop further policies to foster it in the EU.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9789286154089
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/266484
    Schriftenreihe: Economics - working papers ; 2022, 15
    Schlagworte: Business Cycle; FAVAR Models; Financial Markets; Macroeconomic Shocks
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Climate policies, macroprudential regulation, and the welfare cost of business cycles
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  CEIS Tor Vergata, [Rom]

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    Schriftenreihe: CEIS Tor Vergata research paper series ; vol. 20, issue 5 = no. 543 (October 2022)
    Schlagworte: Business Cycle; Cap-and-Trade; Carbon Tax; E-DSGE
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Frequency-band estimation of the number of factors detecting the main business cycle shocks
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  [Adam Smith Business School], [Glasgow]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / University of Glasgow, Adam Smith Business School ; paper no. 2022, 13 (November 2022)
    Schlagworte: Frequency Bands; Dynamic Eigenvalue Ratio; Generalized Dynamic Factor Models; Business Cycle; Permanent Component; DSGE
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Big news: climate change and the business cycle
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Tübingen

    News drive expectations about the economy's future fundamentals. Climate change is big news: it will impact the economy profoundly but the effect will take some time to materialize in full. Climate-change expectations thus offer a unique opportunity... mehr

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    News drive expectations about the economy's future fundamentals. Climate change is big news: it will impact the economy profoundly but the effect will take some time to materialize in full. Climate-change expectations thus offer a unique opportunity to study the impact of news on the business cycle. We measure these expectations in a representative survey of US consumers. Respondents expect not much of an impact on GDP growth, but perceive a high probability of costly, rare disasters-suggesting they are salient of climate change. Furthermore, expectations vary systematically with socioeconomic characteristics, media consumption, various information treatments and over time. We calibrate a New Keynesian model with rare disasters to key results of the survey and find that shifts in climate change expectations operate like demand shocks and cause sizeable business cycle fluctuations.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10900/138652
    hdl: 10419/271523
    Schriftenreihe: University of Tübingen working papers in business and economics ; no. 158
    Schlagworte: Climate change; Disasters; Expectations; Survey,Monetary policy; Business Cycle; Natural rate of interest
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 70 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Expectation-driven boom-bust cycles
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  University of Alberta, Faculty of Arts, Department of Economics, [Edmonton, Alberta]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / University of Alberta, Faculty of Arts, Department of Economics ; no. 2023, 04
    Schlagworte: Animal Spirit; Boom Bust; Business Cycle; Sunspot
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Keynes's theories of the business cycle: evolution and contemporary relevance
    Autor*in: Bortz, Pablo G.
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  Levy Economics Institute, Annandale-on-Hudson, NY

    This paper traces the evolution of John Maynard Keynes's theory of the business cycle from his early writings in 1913 to his policy prescriptions for the control of fluctuations in the early 1940s. The paper identifies six different "theories" of... mehr

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    This paper traces the evolution of John Maynard Keynes's theory of the business cycle from his early writings in 1913 to his policy prescriptions for the control of fluctuations in the early 1940s. The paper identifies six different "theories" of business fluctuations. With different theoretical frameworks in a 30-year span, the driver of fluctuations- namely cyclical changes in expectations about future returns-remained substantially the same. The banking system also played a pivotal role throughout the different versions, by financing and influencing the behavior of return expectations. There are four major changes in the evolution of Keynes's business cycle theories: a) the saving- investment framework to understand changes in economic fluctuations; b) the capabilities of the banking system to moderate the business cycle; c) the effectiveness of monetary policy to fine tune the business cycle through the control of the short-term interest rate or credit conditions; and d) the role of a comprehensive fiscal policy and investment policy to attenuate fluctuations. Finally, some conclusions are drawn about the present relevance of the policy mix Keynes promoted for ensuring macroeconomic stability.

     

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    hdl: 10419/238676
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Levy Economics Institute of Bard College ; no. 986
    Schlagworte: John Maynard Keynes; Business Cycle; Fiscal Policy; MonetaryPolicy; Financial System; Uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten)
  18. A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research, cege, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, [Göttingen]

    We jointly estimate the U.S. business and financial cycle through a unified empirical approach while simultaneously accounting for the role of financial factors. Our approach uses the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition within a medium-scale Bayesian... mehr

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    We jointly estimate the U.S. business and financial cycle through a unified empirical approach while simultaneously accounting for the role of financial factors. Our approach uses the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition within a medium-scale Bayesian Vector Autoregression. First, we show, both in reduced form and when we identify a structural financial shock, that variation in financial factors had a larger role post-2000 and a more modest role pre-2000. Our results suggest that the financial sector did play a role in overheating the business cycle pre-Great Recession. Second, while we document a positive unconditional correlation between the credit cycle and the output gap, the correlation of the lagged credit cycle and the contemporaneous output gap turns negative when we condition on a financial shock. The sign-switch suggests that the nature of the underlying shocks may be important for understanding the relationship between the business and financial cycles.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/232064
    Schriftenreihe: Cege discussion paper ; no. 415 (March 2021)
    Schlagworte: Business Cycle; Financial Cycle; Financial shocks
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Macroeconomic forecasting and business cycle analysis with nonlinear models
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Universitätsbibliothek Kiel, Kiel

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    Beteiligt: Carstensen, Kai (AkademischeR BetreuerIn); Demetrescu, Matei (AkademischeR BetreuerIn)
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Dissertation
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schlagworte: Forecasting; Mixed-frequency; Business Cycle; Nonlinear Models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (iv, 82 Blätter), Illustrationen, Diagramme
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    Dissertation, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, 2020

  20. Reform chatter and democracy
    Erschienen: July 2020
    Verlag:  [LSE Financial Markets Group], [London]

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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Financial Markets Group ; no 810
    Schlagworte: Reform; Chatter; Media; Business Cycle; Democracy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Measuring property rights institutions
    Erschienen: September 2020
    Verlag:  [LSE Financial Markets Group], [London]

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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Financial Markets Group ; no 813
    Schlagworte: Reform; Chatter; Media; Business Cycle; Democracy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Public R&D investment in economic crises
    Erschienen: November, 2021
    Verlag:  University of Luxemborg, Faculty of Law, Economics and Finance, Luxembourg

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    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: November 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2021, 25
    Schlagworte: R&D; Public Policy; Business Cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Limited participation in equity markets and business cycles
    Erschienen: April 16, 2021
    Verlag:  Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

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    Schriftenreihe: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2021, 026
    Schlagworte: Limited Participation; Monetary Policy; Stock Market; Investment; Business Cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 79 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Bad economy, good teachers?
    the countercyclicality of enrolment Into Initial Teacher Training Programmes in the UK
    Autor*in: Fullard, Joshua
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Institute for Social and Economic Research, [Colchester]

    Using data from the Destination of Leavers from Higher Education (DLHE), we take advantage of the plausibly exogenous variation in the unemployment rate, by field of study, at time of graduation to investigate the impact of labour market condition on... mehr

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    Using data from the Destination of Leavers from Higher Education (DLHE), we take advantage of the plausibly exogenous variation in the unemployment rate, by field of study, at time of graduation to investigate the impact of labour market condition on teacher supply, measured by enrolment onto an Initial Teacher Training Programme (TTP). We find that labour market conditions have no effect on the probability that a graduate will go into a TTP. However, heterogeneity analysis suggests that periods of high unemployment impact the composition of graduates who enrol with effects on diversity (more male graduates and more ethnic minority graduates), subject specific shortages (more Physics graduates) and quality (more graduates from Russell Group Universities).

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/248589
    Schriftenreihe: ISER working paper series ; no. 2021, 06 (September 2021)
    Schlagworte: Teacher Supply; Business Cycle; Graduates
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Similarity between business and credit cycles
    evidence from Turkish banking sector
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Head Office, Structural Economic Research Department, Ankara, Turkey

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası ; no: 20, 11 (October 2020)
    Schlagworte: Credit Cycle; Business Cycle; Synchronization; Filtering; Tobit Regression
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen